Democrats need(ed) to sharpen their messaging to win
***I actually wrote this in the summer of 2022 but somehow forgot to publish…
The Democratic party finds itself in quite the quandary. They have the White House, both houses of congress, the country is enjoying record economic growth, low unemployment, have reasonably navigated a reasonable exit to the pandemic, achieved remarkable consensus on foreign affairs and are passing meaningful legislation to help the country. Yet it seems everyone is unhappy. According to a recent poll, an astonishing 88% of Americans believe the country is on the wrong track. Inflation is spiking, the messy withdrawal from Afghanistan hurt Biden’s image of an expert in charge and the war in Ukraine is unsettling & unlikely to end soon or well. Despite the improving public health picture, the economic aftershocks of the pandemic continue to cause unexpected dislocations with every twist and turn which has appeared most notably in inflation and the prospect of a recession as a result of Fed policy.
Most unsettlingly, the country is in a malaise due to the two key losses at the judicial level of reproductive rights and safety from gun violence, even as mass shootings continue with nothing more than a recent congressional token agreement on support for background checks.
Heading into the summer, the conventional wisdom seemed to be that the Democrats are going to get shellacked in November, which to be fair, is the typical trend two years after a new President takes office. Until recently, Biden seemed to have found a way to be less popular than Trunp, which is an amazing accomplishment if you think about and for reasons that are unclear, his Vice President has found a way to be even more unpopular seemingly by virtue of being an African American woman and I guess that’s some kind of problem. While losing the House of Representatives is almost a foregone conclusion, the Senate is a different story given that the Republicans have more competitive seats to defend and have a difficult time nominating candidates with a grip on reality, which hurts the candidacy of extremists in most states.
Some of the issue rests with the large tent that makes up the loose confederation of issues that define the Democratic party,. It’s not one party, but a loose alliance of activists intensely focused on a diverse set of issues:
Civil Rights Issues: Race, Gender & LGBTQ issues
Economic Redistribution
Anti-Trust & Labor Rights
Immigration Reform
Gun Control
Abortion rights
Environmental Justice
Republicans meanwhile focus on just 4 issues, which allows much tighter focus and narrows the tent:
2nd Amendment “rights”
Right to Life (Anti-abortion)
Curbing Illegal Immigration
Low taxes, limited government (starve the beast)
There are also five issues that seem to divide both parties and when one party is able to put the opposing party in a position to deal with them it’s not clean:
Trade - Pro-business Republicans are in favor as are internationalist Democrats, however populists on both sides of the aisle have slowed the path to free trade in recent years. China’s abuse of their ascension to the WTO in 200 has also complicated this issue
Foreign Politics - Each party waffles between interventist vs. isolationist policies for slightly different reasons. On the right are the hawks who favor military intervention in conflicts to deter further action against us. On the left are those who both try to build international consensus based on human rights and also those who believe limited, military objectives (e.g. Afghanistan) as a means to achieve our international diplomacy goals
Anti-corruption & ethics - Generally the party in power has issues and the opposing party does well going after them on these issues
Voting rights - The prevailing wisdom is the this is a “left/right” issue but frankly it’s not. I could go down a very deep rabbit hole on this issue however through gerrymandering and other voting rules typically the party in power at the state level will abuse the rules of the elections & voting as much as possible in their favor. So while this is perceived to be a big problem in the South by the Republican party, in the Northeast the Democrats are not immune from their own set of dirty tricks
Defense spending - In the typical “guns vs. butter” view of politics there’s a view that Republicans are in favor of high defense spending and Democrats are not. Republicans are more likely to favor expensive weapons systems & bases in their home districts, but not necessarily benefits for veterans or raises for current personnel. The libertarian right does not however favor such high spending. Meanwhile the Democratic party has views all over the spectrum but tends to more strongly favor expensive policies that favor the benefits of members of the armed forces, their families & retirees. Nonetheless, Democrats protect their own interests when it comes to weapons systems & bases. Have you ever wondered by submarines are still built in Connecticut?
Each party also has a few “achilles heels” which can be exploited. The Democrats have four:
Government union overreach - Government unions (except for uniformed officers in some areas) across the country turn out in droves to support the Democratic party. It’s no coincidence that schools are always closed for election day. But the giveaways Democrats make, generally in pension obligations, generous healthcare plans and work rules that make it very difficult to fire government workers saddle the taxpayers with massive and seemingly ever growing fixed costs
High Taxes - It seems like the Democrats never know when to stop especially on the far left. Limited wealth taxes, raising corporate & capital gains taxes and closing loopholes are good soundbites to win elections but once in power Democrats can’t seem to help themselves, particularly at local levels where property taxes in the suburbs cost Democrats dearly
Anti-Israel - Generally the Jews have traditionally supported the Democratic party. Except for the most observant branches of traditional orthodox and Lubavich communities (which are up for grabs based on who will leave them to their own devices), generally the Jewish faith is aligned to liberal politics. However on the far left there are strong pro-Palestinian & anti-Israel groups (which inevitably seem to show up at every anti-war or environment cause) who alienate the mainstream to the glee of conservatives
The Nanny State - Despite their best intentions, Democrats tend to support rule making; allowing Federal agencies to dictate how people can live (or there is the perception that they do — remember the fictitious ‘Obama Death Panels’?). This often results in a perception of overreach that hurts in the polls
The Republicans have 3 as well:
Racism & anti-semitism: Hillary Clinton was right. The people who hold the most repugnant views seemingly vote Republican and the party depends on them. While it’s unfair to label Republicans as racists or anti-semites, there was an underbelly of the party that appealed to them through emissaries and “dog whistles.” Trump changed all that and made it overt while running and in office (Charlottesville & January 6th) and it hasn’t gone away. The “deplorable” wing of the Republican party turns off a lot of moderates.
Bad service- Since Reagan came to power, the words “I’m from the government and I’m here to help” became a negative in the Republican party. Outside of the military there’s a view that in order to starve the beast and align with the orthodoxy that limited government is better because government is generally inefficient and sub-optimal as a service provider, Republican leaders, particularly George W. Bush, have made a mockery of the public sector by defunding it as much as possible and appointing leaders tasked with fighting their institutions more than leading them. But when crises arise, such as Katrina, when Bush appointed a campaign donor to lead FEMA, it turns on its head the perception, particularly of former business leaders perceived as competent executives, that Republicans should be in charge. Trump’s bungling of the COVID-19 pandemic may also have hurt him with the few undecided on him on the margins.
Extreme abortion positions - To say abortion is a messy issue (more later) is an understatement. There are two challenges of the abortion issue:
Details matter: Though generally 61% believe that abortion should be legal in all or most casts and this is a steady trend support is only 38% of all who identify as Republican & 27% amongst conservatives who make up the Republican base agree. Furthermore, once you get into certain details, abortion loses a marority support in cases such as:
2nd or 3rd term trimester procedures except for the most extreme reasons given premature babies have survived to live relatively normal lives as early as 22 weeks post-conception
Abortion for “lifestyle” reasons
Incorporation of use of labels such as “pro life”
Public funding
If you believe that life begins at conception - and most who oppose abortion claim to - then logically you have to oppose abortion even for reasons that Americans believe should be legalization such as:
Rape or incest
Health of mother is threatened
Severe birth defects (which in certain circumstances means women must carry babies likely to die at birth or soon after to term)
Ggenerally when a party caves to its extremes and overreaches, particularly to an extent that there is a view that the party in power is encroaching on liberties, the country seems to apply a powerful and consistent moderating force in aggregate in major elections. As a result, the recent Supreme Court case provides Democrats with a powerful opportunity to exploit in the fall, and there is recent evidence in Kansas which shockingly upheld abortion rights in its state constitution despite being a deeply “Red” state. But it will be difficult for Democrats to rally their looser coalition of issues that hold more majority views, but with less intensity and are more diffuse. As a result, the party is constantly fighting itself with everyone agreeing they need to improve their messaging but because different dems focus on different issues, they can’t ever agree to consensus, whereas Republicans have consensus on their tighter set of issues.
If Democratss focused on top issues that appealed to higher percentage, they’d win. Simply adopting a platform of The Right to Live & Choose without fear. They should keep it very simple, focus on Gun Control, particularly opposition to well-supported positions & Abortion Rights and they’ll win. Gun Control is trickier as it does fall into the trap of feeding the perception that government is taking away liberty but given all of the recent deaths from mass shootings (more to follow from me on this issue), it’s possible that Democrats may be able to start to turn the tide better on this issue. There are other distractions out there like Trump, Russia / Ukraine, Taxes & the Environment but Democrats would do well to stick with a tight, disciplined message to win in the fall. I doubt they will.