OK, I admit it. I’m emotionally invested in this Tuesday’s election outcome. How could I not when it feels like our democracy is at stake? I’m going to be very worked up in 48 hours, for sure. I’m in on the polling, the betting odds, everything. Here’s my sense of how things will go down…

Firstly, now that I’ve passionately made the argument for Joe Biden, my heart’s all in it. I want him to win and win big and my heart tells me he will. All turnout numbers look up and that’s got to be good for Biden. Political Scientists will tell you that strong feelings against a particular candidate driven by negative advertising best drives voter turnout. That’s what made Obama’s 2008 win so inspiring; people were voting FOR him, not against McCain. Most didn’t vote FOR Trump, they voted AGAINST Hillary. I just don’t see a lot of enthusiasm in the Trump rallies anymore and the anti-Trump sentiment in this country runs deep and is strong. There isn’t a lot of passion FOR Joe Biden but there is a tremendous amount of antipathy for Trump and I think that’s what’s driving so much of the early voting — well that and the Coronavirus and everyone’s fear of getting it at a polling place & other shenanigans on election day. All of the noise is about how the polls are a repeat of 2020 but aside from some black men and hispanics on the margins, I don’t see how Trump has expanded his base. Meanwhile it’s looking like Biden will score a 20 point swing with white women and the elderly, two very large demographics that went for Trump in 2016. What pollster wants to be wrong for Biden now?! May we be in for a repeat of 2012 when the polls all had a close election predicted and Obama stomped Romney?

I also pay a lot of attention to the betting odds and right now they favor Biden at -190 or with approximately a 65% chance to win. Consider that as late as July Trump was favored (which I kick myself for because I saw that as a very mis-priced odd).

But my head is worried, very worried. The betting odds also suggest a 35% chance Trump wins! That’s one in three! Would you go into a surgery with a 35% chance of dying? Voluntarily? To be honest a Trump win may be better than a messy Biden win (something that may be possible). I don’t see Trump getting a clean, undisputed win but I’m VERY worried about a disputed election either way. I went through the election map and I expect Trump to pick up 3 percentage points in all of the polls and if you look at that, Biden gets most of the Midwest “Blue Wall,” but not Pennsylvania. As I look at things, Trump needs to win Ohio, Florida & Pennsylvania to win. If Biden wins any of them and Michigan & Wisconsin don’t wildly swing things, if he wins just one of them, it could be open.

The only thing that’s for certain is that there will be some big surprises Tuesday night. Some I could foresee:

• Everyone’s thinking the result will drag out. It could be over before the 11 o’clock news. Pennsylvania polls close at 8pm and they will intake mail ballots until the 6th and won’t start counting until after polls close. The conventional wisdom is that everything will come down to PA and it’ll go late, but what if the exit polling is strong for Biden and the networks call PA early? And Ohio closes at 7:30pm and they count the mail ballots first. So we may know Ohio early. And if it goes for Biden, Trump’s cooked. It could also be a shocker like Texas where there isn’t a lot of mail and there’s been a TON of early voting. Texas could be called before midnight.

• Some Republican senator we don’t expect (my guess is David Purdue) will lose.

• Some Democratic senator we don’t expect will lose. Could it be Mark Kelly in Arizona?

• Some state’s results will shock us. If Trump wins, other than the big three it’s also going to include his scoring somewhere like New Hampshire or pull a repeat in Michigan / Wisconsin that the polls just don’t see coming. If Biden wins, it could be a much bigger landslide than anyone saw with multiple light red states going his way.

• Nicole Malliotakis has a chance to run against the grain and defeat Max Rose. He’s in a tough district to defend where the protests in NYC have been very unpopular