The four tribes of Republicans — and why it is important
Given the President’s reprehensible actions leading to and following the election, including the incitement of the insurrection that launched the rebellious attack on the US Capital on January 6th, I’ve been thinking a lot about the state of the Republican party & what it means for the pending impeachment process. I’ve already noted that I find the President to be reprehensible, unfit for office, would add last week’s events to the list & supported impeachment in the previous go around.
In this case, while I find the President’s actions impeachable & criminal, it’s unclear that a Senate trial removing him from office would be a good idea because:
Effectively it doesn’t matter— McConnell has already signaled that he won’t call the Senate back into session until after the inauguration so it is impossible to remove the President from office before his term ends
It will distract from the national priorities, which is to end the COVID-19 pandemic as soon as possible & support the economy (particularly State & Local governments which have had no help to this point)
It may play into the Republican’s hands by being perceived as an liberal overreach, allow them to gain a victory & turn the page successfully
In handicapping the odds in the Senate (the House doesn’t matter since you only need a majority vote to impeach and I think it’ll happen a lot more often in the future), I felt it would be useful to split the Republicans into the four groups of the party: The Never Trumpers, The Enablers, The Core & The Fascists. I’ve categorized senators and added some other leading names
Group 1 - The Never Trumpers (There are no senators presently, but McCain & others who have retired like Colin Powell, Bush & Carly Fiorina are Republicans in this group)
These Republicans (often called RINO’s — Republicans In Name Only) not only find President Trump distasteful, they don’t shy away from frequently voting against him. It’s McCain’s vote in the Senate that preserved Obamacare that put him in this book in my view (at least at the end of his life). I could vote for a Never Trumper.
In my view about 10% of Republicans fall into this category but it used to be much higher. Most are well-educated suburban whites who favor limited regulation & taxes, but are typically liberal on social issues and the environment. These voters either voted for Biden or sat out the election.
Group 2 - The Enablers (Rubio, Sasse, Romney, Tim Scott, Alexander, Toomey, Murkowski, Collins, Capito, Cotton, Chris Christie, Gary Cohn, Jeff Sessions, Jim Mattis)
These Republicans don’t like Trump, aren’t shy to say it and are quick to condemn him, they have enabled him by supporting his legislative agenda. Though they (particularly Collins, Romney, Murkowski & Sasse) often try to present themselves as Never Trumpers and likely will do so in the future for their own political gain, they aren’t really; they have consistently voted for Tump and delivered him Supreme Court Justices & other legislative victories. Except for Romney, none voted for impeachment last time but likely would this time. They are Biden’s calls when he needs 60 votes. Because there are only 10 of them, McConnell didn’t call the Senate back and I think a senate vote on conviction would fail. I might be able to vote for An Enabler, but I doubt it because in my view they’re not any more principled than the Fascists. They just think that the party will need to be more inclusive in the future to win a majority in a country of shifting demographics.
In my view 30% of Republicans fall into this category but are most of my Republican friends. They don’t like Trump very much but they voted for him (mostly because they’re rich).
Group 3 - The Transacting Core (McConnell, Pence, Thune, Barrasso, Ernst, Blunt, Young, Loeffler, Perdue, Blackburn, Boozman, Braun, Burr, Cassidy, Cornyn, Crapom Cramer, Daines, Enzi, Fischer, Gardner, Graham, Grassley, Hoeven, Hyde-Smith, Inhofe, Johnson, Lankford, Lee, Loeffler, McSally, Moran, Paul, Perdue, Portman, Risch, Roberts, Rounds, Shelby, Sullivan, Tillis, Wicker, Young, Nikki Haley, Larry Kudlow)
These Republicans — mostly old white men — were initially skeptical of Trump as a Presidential candidate but came to love him as a marriage. They consistently fully support the Republican platform of high military spending, low taxes, low regulation, deny Global Warming, fight against abortion & oppose any gun control efforts. Their #1 goal is filling the courts with loyalists and are representative of current senate and party leadership. Most of their positions aren’t supported by a majority of Americans and they were very happy for Trump to be the lightning rod and take the arrows for their morally reprehensible politics. Trump figured out quickly that he divines his power principally from them and they have always been very quick to get him to “come home” whenever he strayed, whether on taxes for Private Equity or making peace with North Korea.
Their attitude is best summed up in four words: “Let’s just move on.” While they are principled and hard core Republicans, they also respect institutions. Some supported a symbolic vote against overturning the election results but reversed their positions after the attack on the Capital. In my view, impeachment plays into their hands and will allow them to stall further legislation & perhaps win a majority in the 2022 cycle. I don’t think they will vote for it or ever compromise with Democrats, but most would probably vote for censure. Trump will never be removed from office until this core - which typically moves together except for Rand Paul — significantly rebels against him and that is unlikely. I find their politics too conservative to ever vote for any of them.
In my view 30% of Republicans fall into this category. Some were friends but it’s hard to be right now. They publicly support Trump but will privately admit they don’t care for him or his tactics.
Group 4 - The Fascists (Hyde-smith, Hawley, Cruz, Kennedy, Lummis, Marshall, Rick Scott, Tuberville, Rudy Giuliani, Mike Pompeo)
These Republicans are the dead-enders & in my view are not Americans anymore. These who are unabashed Trump loyalists, know better but exploit their support for him either because they truly believe in him or out of their own ambition. They believe Trump will control the party & future primaries so their support for him now will play well in Iowa in three years. I believe these Senators should not be seated because they do not believe in the Constitution and can’t in good conscience be a part of any organization that lends any of them any support, now or in the future. They will lead the fight against any action against Trump, now and in the future.
In my view 30% of Republicans fall into this category. I’d like to think no one I know is one of these people but I’m worried I may be wrong.